在大学的考G考T的经验以及两年寒假在北京新东方的刻苦培训，加上半年来在上海新东方作文教学，使我更加深刻地明白了作文的写作的确存在短期突破的可能性与必要性。
记得在大学时代，各个大学的BBS上包括我们华工就广为流传着“作文魔板”这个名词，没有自己体会过用套路写作的人其实根本不可能理解到这其中的奥秘，因为有的人说背“魔板”是不可能得到高分的，而另一些人却说不背“魔板”得到的高分是没有“性价比”的。实际上，就我个人而言，我认为魔板的背诵是非常必要的，但绝对不是能是盲目的!
大家都知道，我们中国人其实在英语的听说读写四个环节上最薄弱的就是输出的两个能力：说和写;而最强的就是输入的两个能力：读和听。而如果我们想在出国的道路上成为佼佼者，那么在保持传统强项的同时是否应该特别加强一下我们的口语和写作能力呢?
而根据我考TSE(TEST OF SPOKEN ENGLISH)的经验，其实口语考试分数的高低(注意这里仅仅是指考试分数)几乎完全取决于你到底背了多少段落。因为口语的TOPIC是覆盖面非常广泛的：教育、文化、历史、生物、科技、艺术等等，所以这就从客观上决定了考生必须背大量的段落，而实际上背的过程中也就是把不涉及过于具体内容的话背下来，到考试的时候再把听到或看到题目要求的具体内容往里面加。一定要注意是从背具体的段落到提炼抽象的魔板最后再回到具体的段落：
·具体
·抽象
·具体
下面我就分别以新TOFEL的综合部分和GRE/GMAT作文的“阿狗”部分为例分别给大家分享一下我个人对于满分的一些理解。
TOEFL
其实新托福加了综合部分以后，我个人认为是降低了难度。因为原来老托福的作文作为新托福作文的独立部分并没有什么太大的改变，而且大家都知道作文水平的提高不是一朝一夕的事情，那么我刚才说的不能盲目就是指大家不能在这个需要体现真正写作水平的部分去背段落，因为这个是会被认为是舞弊行为的。那么在综合、独立各占15 分的时候，我们如果能把握住任何一个部分的高分实际上平均下来的分数就不会低。而综合部分由于是先读一篇文章，再听一段录音，然后让我们谈文章与录音的相互关系，而不用发表自己的观点这一题目本身的客观要求就决定了它是可以背由固定标准语句组成的“魔板”的。这正如研究生入学考试英语写作的小作文和雅思写作的小作文一样是有固定套路的。比如录音讲座要么就是质疑或者反驳了阅读段落;要么就是支持或者加强了阅读段落，所以只需要把相关描述质疑或者反驳与描述支持或者加强的固定语句背下来就可以得到一个相对较高的分数，如果考生同时又把相关要点表达准确和清楚了的话，那么满分是完全可能的。当综合部分有15分在手的时候，独立部分只要及格那么就能至少获得24分的作文高分!
比如以下两个“魔板“是分别描述质疑或者反驳以及支持或者加强的：
Integrated Writing Task
How the Integrated Writing Task is phrased:
If the lecture challenges the information in the reading passage, the writing task will usually be phrased in one of the following ways:
ØSummarize the points made in the lecture, being sure to explain how they cast doubt on specific points made in the reading passage.
ØSummarize the points made in the lecture, being sure to explain how they challenge specific claims/arguments made in the reading passage.
ØSummarize the points made in the lecture, being sure to specifically explain how they answer the problems raised in the reading passage.
Showing Challenge
In the lecture, the professor made several points about______________. The professor argues that__________________.
However, the reading contends that________________.
The professor’s lecture casts doubts on the reading by using a number of points that are contrary to___________________________.
The first point that the professor uses to cast doubt on the reading is that_________________.
According to the professor,________________________________.
_______________ differs from the reading in that the reading states _______________________________.
The point made by the professor casts doubt on the reading because_______________________.
Another point that the professor uses to casts doubt on the reading is ___________________________________.
The professor claims that______________________________________.
However, the reading states _____________________________________.
This point is contradicted by_____________________________________.
Finally, the professor stated that, on the contrary of the reading, _____________________________________.
In other words,______________________________________.
This directly contradicts what the reading passage indicates, because___________________________.
In conclusion, the points made in the lecture contradict the reading.
_________________and_______________ demonstrate that ___________is in doubt.
If the lecture supports or strengthens the information in the reading passage, the writing task will usually be phrased in one of the following ways:
ØSummarize the points made in the lecture, being sure to specifically explain how they support the explanations in the reading passage.
ØSummarize the points made in the lecture, being sure to specifically explain how they strengthen specific points made in the reading passage.
Showing support
In the lecture, the professor made several points about_______________.
The professor argues that______________________________.
The points made by the professor agree with________________.
In fact, the examples used by the professor support_________________.
The first point that the professor uses to support the reading is that_______________________.
According to the professor,_____________________________.
_______________________supports the reading, which holds that_______________________.
The point made by the professor supports the reading because_____________________.
Furthermore, the professor bolsters the reading by stating that_______________.
The professor claims that_________________________________.
This point agrees with the reading, which contends that______________.
__________________ shows the truth of the reading because___________.
Finally, the professor stated that, in support of the reading, ______________________________.
Specifically,__________________________________________.
This perfectly reinforced what the reading passage indicates, because___________________________.
In conclusion, the points made in the lecture support the reading.
________________ and ________________________demonstrate that ________________________is invalid.
接下来，我将以如下例子来告诉大家如果提炼“魔板”：
Getting the Templates
The first point the professor makes that casts doubt on the reading is his point about the behavior of stags. The professor shows how the actions of animal can be interpreted in different ways. For example, some people interpret the stag’s actions as being for the “good of the species,” but the professor shows that the stag is actually acting in self-interest. This casts doubt on the reading because it appears that the crickets’ behavior can be interpreted as helping only individual crickets and not the group as a whole. The professor then talks about the results of the experiment, which seems to indicate the crickets are acting only in self-interest.
Another point the professor makes that casts doubt on the reading is his point about the intelligence of animals and insects. As he states, it would seem to require a lot of intelligence to evaluate how a behavior will affect an entire species. This makes the explanation in the reading seem less likely; a cricket is probably unable to think of the consequences of its actions. It is more likely that the cricket is only acting out of self-preservation, as the professor indicates.
The first point the professor makes that casts doubt on the reading is his point about__________________________________.
The professor shows that_____________________________________.
For example, ______________________________, but the professor shows that_______________________________________.
This casts doubt on the reading because it appears that_________________________________.
The professor then talks about_________________________, which seems to indicate that___________________________.
Another point the professor makes that casts doubt on the reading is his point about__________________________________.
As he states, it would seem to___________________________.
This makes the explanation in the reading seem less likely;_____________________________________.
It is more likely that________________________, ad the professor indicates.
实际上，大家从上面这个例子就可以发现“魔板”的提取过程就是这样的：
·先认真读完一篇满分范文
·再用笔划掉其中涉及题目具体内容的部分
·最后把余下来的部分抄写下来即可
但“魔板”做出来后只是做了一小半工作，大家还必须学会如何往里面填空，实际上最简单的方法就是看着题目把具体内容自己填进去，然后跟范文对比，找出填空的精华技巧所在，因为在后半部分的GRE/GMAT中我还会详细讲解，所以这里只是先告诉大家这样一个简单方法。
大家如果想在今后新托福的考试中作文部分有所突破，那么就应该按照我这个提炼“魔板”的方法，去至少提炼20篇左右的满分范文，再加以有机排列组合成自己独特的考试“魔板”，最后进行集中填空，那么新托福作文25分将不再是神话。
GRE/GMAT
下面，我将再用GRE/GMAT的作文填空法来帮大家强化“魔板”的方法以及填空的概念。
其实跟新托福一样，GRE/GMAT中作文也分为两个部分：“一休”和“阿狗”。那么这两个部分也是同等重要，而且一个难以短期突破，一个只能短期突破，所以“魔板”的作用就在这里显示出来了。“阿狗”由于是驳论文，不需要发表考生自己的观点，只需要考生指出段落的逻辑错误即可，那么专门用来写驳论文的反驳式段落就显得非常重要，而我们大家都没有学过如何去写驳论文，所以可以说不背“魔板”基本就不可能及格。而背“魔板”也分高手和水手，所以我个人认为有以下三重境界：
·知道如何提炼“魔板”
·知道需要将提炼的“魔板”排列组合成自己的考试“魔板”
·知道怎么往“魔板”里正确、恰当地填空
只有达到这三重境界的全部才可能获得满分。下面我将以几个例子来巩固“魔板”的提炼方法以及重点介绍如何填空，而排列组合由于非常简单而且因人而异，这里就不再介绍，有问题可以发邮件跟我交流。
1. 开头段
In this argument, the arguer concludes that sending the mechanics of GAA to a two-week QCS on proper maintenance procedures will automatically lead to improved maintenance and to greater customer satisfaction along with greater profits for the airline. To support the conclusion, the arguer points out that the performance of the maintenance crews in the automobile racing industry improved markedly after their crews had attended the seminar. In addition, the arguer reasons that since the maintenance crews of the automobile racing industry and the mechanics of GAA perform many of the same functions, the airlines will gain similar benefits from the training program. This argument suffers from several critical fallacies.
In this argument, the arguer recommends that C should advise its citizens to install both air conditioners and fans for cooling in order to reduce the cost of electricity. To justify this claim, the arguer provides the evidence that many citizens of C suffer from the rising costs of electricity. In addition, he cites the result of a recent study that using fans alone costs more than using air conditioners alone, and that using both fans and air conditioners costs less than either using fans or air conditioners alone. A careful examination of this argument would reveal how groundless the conclusion is.
In this analysis, the arguer claims that P University should offer employment to the spouse of each new faculty member that they hire. To substantiate the conclusion, the arguer cites the example of B College where professors prefer to have their spouse employed in the same geographical area. In addition, the arguer assumes that this offer of possible job for their spouse on the campus, no matter whether it will be accepted, is the only factor that new professors consider in deciding whether to accept a university position. This argument is unconvincing for several critical flaws.
In this argument, the arguer advocates that the C Corporation should hire DF, a family owned local company that offers varied menu of fish and poultry, instead of GT Company, the present supplier of food in C’s employee cafeteria. The recommendation is based on the observation that the GT is expensive, that its prices have kept rising, that it does not serve special diets, and that three employees complained about it. Meanwhile, the arguer assumes D to be a better choice for C because a sample lunch of this company that the arguer happened to taste was delicious. This argument is problematic for two reasons.
The conclusion in this argument is that F College can expect to increase enrollment by promising to find jobs for students after graduation. In support of this prediction, the arguer claims that college-bound students are increasingly concerned about job prospects after graduation. Moreover, the arguer assumes that this attempt has three benefits: (1) to enable F to compete with more famous schools; (2) to encourage students to start career preparation early; (3) to encourage students to complete their coursework. This argument is fraught with vague, oversimplified and unwarranted assumptions.
2. 中间段
First, the argument is based on a false analogy. The arguer simply assumes that airplane mechanics and automobile maintenance crews perform many similar functions, but he does not provide any evidence that their functions are indeed comparable. As we know, the structure, operation and function of airplanes and those of automobiles differ conspicuously. It is true that both the airplane and the automobile need refueling and engine maintenance, but even here there exist fundamental differences: the structure and the building materials of each other’s engines are different, so is the oil they use. Therefore, even though the two-week Quality-Care Seminar proved effective in improving the performance of the maintenance crews in the automobile racing industry, there is no guarantee that it will work just as well for airplane mechanics
Second, the arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. Even if the maintenance of the airline has been improved as a result of sending its mechanics to the Seminar, which is, of course , unwarranted assumption, it does not follow that there will be greater profits as well as greater customer satisfaction for airline. As we know, customer satisfaction depends on several major factors other than good maintenance of the airplane. For instance, customers are generally concerned about the punctuality, the on-board service, the ticket price, the luggage handling procedure and even the discount, all of which are ignored by the arguer. Besides, the arguer does not provide any solid information concerning how the airplane can improve its profits. Unless Get-Away Airlines can significantly increase its customers or passengers and at the same time cut down its costs, both of which are unknown from this argument, there is no guarantee that it will “inevitably” harvest greater profits. Actually, the arguer’s recommendation of investing in this training program a the only way to increase customer satisfaction an profits would most probably turn out to be ineffective and misleading.
In the first place, the arguer fails to take into account the geographical factors in the analysis. While we informed that there are wide geographical differences in the nation of Claria, and that many citizens are experiencing rising costs of electricity, the arguer fails to make clear the exact number of those citizens or their percentage in the national population, as well as the geographical distribution of these citizens. If only a small portion of the whole population are experiencing the rising costs of electricity while most familiars do not have similar experience, then the reason might be that the former do not use electricity sparingly. In this case, the rising costs of those families have nothing to do with what kind of electric appliance they use to cool their house. Or if only families living in hot areas are spending more money on cooling, then it is unwise to require citizens living in temperate and frigid zones to install both fans and air conditioners, in the absence of all this information, it is impossible for us to install both fans and air conditioners. In the absence of all this information, it is impossible for us to evaluate the recommended policy that is intended to help every household nationwide to reduce their electricity cost.
In the second place , the comparison in this argument is incomplete and selective, the arguer discovers that using fans alone is more cost effective than using air conditions alone, and that using both fans and air conditioners are the least expensive way of cooling. However, the arguer fails to provide any information regarding the actual amount of time for using, respectively, fans alone, air conditioners alone, and both fans and air conditioners in those three groups of surveyed families. It is very likely that these three groups of families are located in three very different climatic regions of Claria, and hence the amount of days of the year during which they need to cool their houses varies significantly. Families living in cooler areas of the nation certainly cool their houses for fewer hours and hence use less electricity than families living in hot areas, no matter what cooling appliance they use. Unless we are certain that the surveyed families ling in the same climatic region, or that they need to cool their houses for the same amount of hours in the same year although they live in different regions, which is very unlikely, we have every reason to doubt the trustworthiness of this comparative study. Furthermore on electricity may be using more electricity for purposes other than cooling. Unless the arguer also takes this factor into consideration, the comparison is unconvincing.
First of all, the argument is based on a hasty generalization. According to the cited studies, professors at Bronston College are happier living in small towns when their spouses are also employed in the local area than when their spouses work in distant areas, which is understandable. This fact tells very little about what actual conditions the professors often consider as important when they choose where to work. Even if we accept the arguer’s assumption that whether their spouse can find a job in the local area Is the only important question that new professors consider when they decide whether to accept is it likely that the professor will consider accepting the university’s offer. Consequently, it is unwarranted to assume that new professors will accept Pierce’s offer whether their spouse can find satisfactory employment in the local area.
In addition, the arguer fails to consider several other relevant factors that may influence professors’ decision. For instance, since Pierce’s location is not ideal, the pay it offers should be high enough to be attractive. New gifted professors are also concerned about the position they can have and the courses they supposed to teach in the new university. What’s more, what researchers care most about might be the university’s research conditions such as laboratory equipments, adequate research funds, etc.
Finally, the arguer hints that the morale of Pierce’s entire staff is low, but he fails to analyze the causes. Is it because the management of the university is poor, or because the pay is too low, or because the local area stuffers from economic depression, or because the local environment is severely damaged by industrial pollution? Under these circumstances, offering employment to the spouse would be ineffective at all for the purpose of attracting more new professors. Furthermore, if these problems do exist, even if Pierce succeeds in hiring many of the most gifted teachers and researchers of the country, the general moral of the whole faculty would remain low.
The major problem with this argument is that the arguer fails to convince us that Cedar’s present supplier the Good-Taste should be fired. First, the fact that the Good-Taste is the second most expensive caterer in the city may be due to its better foods, quality service and high reputation in this industry. Second, the fact that it prices have been rising for the last three years may be due to nationwide inflation or the rising cost in the food industry. Third, the fact that Good- Taste refuses to serve special diets does not indicate that it cannot meet the needs of Cedar Corporation unless the arguer can demonstrate that Good-Taste served special diets at first and now it refuses to do so hence disappointing Cedar’s employees complained, which makes it impossible for us to e valuate the overall service of Good-Taste. Maybe these three people are those few on special diets. Even if they have every reason to complain about the foods or service of the supplier on a certain day, these three people’s opinion lacks the necessary representativeness based on which we can make any general judgment concerning the overall performance of Good-Taste.
Another point worth considering is the arguer’s hasty generalization. We are informed that Discount serves fish and poultry, but we do not know whether Cedar’s employee all prefer this limited menu. We can believe that one sample lunch that the arguer happened to taste was indeed delicious, but based on this slim information, we can never evaluate the overall performance of Discount.
One major assumption in short of legitimacy is the causal relationship claimed between college-bound students’ increasing concern abut job prospects after graduation and their expectation on the university to find jobs for them. Students’ increasing concern about job prospects may mean that when they choose which university to go to they prefer those universities that can offer the majors most likely to lead to more job opportunities and higher income after graduation. They may also be more interested in prestigious universities because their students are more competitive and more welcomed in the job market. As is known to everyone, in a market economy, promising to find jobs for students is impractical and hence rather doubtful. This strategy may prove misleading and counterproductive in the end. Instead of promising jobs to students, Foley College should devote its resources and efforts to offering more majors with good job prospects as well as attracting more prestigious professors to enhance its reputation.
In addition, the conclusion is based on a gratuitous assumption that promising students jobs will make students more conscious in their study. This, however, is unwarranted. When students do not have to worry about their employment after graduation, they feel no pressure in their study; as a result, they will become more passive and dependent and gradually lose the initiative to improve themselves. Although it is more likely that they will complete their coursework, but when they graduate, no company would like to employ them. By then the university’s promise will turn not to be meaningless.
3. 结尾段
In summary, the conclusion reached in this argument is in valid and misleading. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer would have to prove that college-bound students are most concerned about the promise of jobs after graduation and the F College can keep its promise in the end. Moreover, I would suspend my judgment about the credibility of the recommendation until the arguer can provide concrete evidence that promising students jobs can actually encourage them to work harder in their study. Otherwise, the arguer is simply begging the question throughout the argument.
To conclude, the argument is not persuasive as it stands. Before we accept the conclusion, the arguer must present more facts that GT has indeed to meet the requirements of C Corporation. To solidify the argument, the arguer would have to produce more evidence concerning the foods and service of D and how they can better meet the needs of C’s employees.
As it stands, the argument is not well reasoned. To make it logically acceptable, the arguer would have to demonstrate that an offer of employment to the spouse is the only condition that new professors consider on accepting P’s offer. Additionally, the arguer must provide evidence to rule out other possible causes of the low staff morale at the university.
To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To strengthen the argument the arguer would have to provide more evidence concerning the percentage of the affected families and their geographical distribution. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information regarding the electric expense relevant to the actual amount of time for cooling among, respectively, the three groups of households and the amount of electricity used for other purposes in all three groups of families under survey.
In conclusion, the arguer fails to establish a causal relationship between sending Get-Away’s mechanics to the Quality-Care Seminar and improved maintenance, greater customer satisfaction and greater profits for the airline. To strengthen the argument, the argument, the arguer would have to provide evidence that automobile maintenance and airplane maintenance are similar in every aspect. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information about the relationship between improved maintenance and greater customer satisfaction along with greater profits.
由以上5篇文章我们可以提炼出以下“魔板”：
1. In this argument, the arguer concludes that .To support the conclusion, the arguer points out that .In addition, the arguer reasons that .This argument suffers from several critical fallacies.
First, the argument is based on a false analogy.
Second, the arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization.
In conclusion, the arguer fails to establish a causal relationship between and . To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide evidence that . To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information about .
2. In this argument, the arguer recommends that . To justify this claim, the arguer provides the evidence that .In addition, he cites the result of recent study that . A careful examination of this argument would reveal how groundless the conclusion is.
In the first place, the arguer fails to take into account the geographical factors in the analysis.
In the second place, the comparison in this argument is incomplete and selective.
To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support what the arguer maintains. To strengthen the argument, the arguer have to provide more evidence concerning . To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information regarding .
3. In this analysis, the arguer claims that . To substantiate the conclusion, the arguer cites . In addition the arguer assumes that . This argument is unconvincing for several critical flaws.
First of all, the argument is base on a hasty generalization.
In addition, the arguer fails to consider several other relevant factors that may influence .
Finally, the arguer hints that , but he fails to analyze the causes.
As it stands, the argument is not well reasoned. To make it logically acceptable, the arguer would have to demonstrate that . Additionally, the arguer must provide evidence .
4. In this argument, the arguer advocates that . This recommendation is based on the observation that . Meanwhile, the arguer assumes . This argument is problematic for two reasons.
The major problem with this argument is that the arguer fails to convince us that .
Another point worth considering is the arguer’s hasty generalization.
To conclude, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. Before we accept the conclusion, the arguer must present more facts that . To solidify the argument, the arguer would have to produce more evidence concerning .
5. The conclusion in this argument is that . In support of this prediction, the arguer claims that . Moreover, the arguer assumes that . This argument is fraught with vague, oversimplified and unwarranted assumptions.
One major assumption in short of legitimacy is the causal relationship claimed between and .
In addition, the conclusion is based on a gratuitous assumption that .
In summary, the conclusion reached in this argument is invalid and misleading. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer would have to prove that . Moreover, I would suspend my judgment about the credibility of the recommendation until the arguer can provide concrete evidence that .
文章最后我就用这2道ARGUMENT真题来让大家体会一下如何填空，由于篇幅有限，所以我直接给出了答案，希望大家在自己练习“满分魔板填空法”的时候先自己按照这两道真题题目本身进行填空，再对照我的标准答案，只有这样才能够体会到“满分魔板填空法”的精髓所在。
例题一：The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
“Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and restore hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View’s tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell’s economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and restore hotel similar to those in Ocean View.
题目结论：末句。
1. 在两个事物之间进行的弱类比——错误类比(False analogy)/不全面比较或有选择比较(incomplete comparison or selected comparison)
题目通过与类似事物的比较得出关于某一事物的结论(城市、学校、公司)但表层的共性并不能否定更深层次的差异。/比较两个事物时， 只比较少数几个方面，或只比较对自己的观点有利的方面，同时忽略或压制其他重要方面。
关键判断词：Similar
改错模板：The argument relies on what might be a false analogy between OV and H. In order for a new municipal golf course and restore hotel in OV to serve as models which H should emulate, the major must assume that all the relevant circumstances involving the general and initial economy are essentially the same. However this assumption is unwarranted. For example, the argument overlooks the possibility that the increase of OV’s tax revenues was motivated by other factors/concerns besides the new building in OV. Perhaps those in power changed some policies regarding OV’s tax revenues. As for 30 percent, perhaps the starting point is very low. Or perhaps the improvement of OV’s tax revenues is only because a dominant geographical location in OV.
2.混淆因果关系和相关性(两个现象一起发生)和时间的先后次序(一个现象在另一个现象之后发生)。
关键判断词：Two years ago/during the past two years
改错模板：The argument is based on a known correlation between building a new municipal golf course accompanied by a restore hotel and the enhancement of OV’s tax revenues, that the latter is attributable, at least partly, to the former. Yet the correlation alone amounts to scant evidence of the claimed cause-and–effect relationship. Perhaps the growth of OV’s tax revenues can be caused by other factors as well, which are absent in these particular states but present in all the others. Moreover, the argument overlooks the fact that two years doesn’t mean forever. The arguer has not accounted for the possibility that the geographical and demographic differences might even lead to opposite result. If this is the case, then the conclusion that H should follow the example of OV would lack any merits whatsoever.
3.认为所有事物是恒定的
关键判断词：Two years ago/during the past two years
改错模板：The arguer’s claim unfairly infers form OV’s comparatively promotion of tax revenues in the past that H should copy/indiscriminately imitate. Absent evidence to support this inference, it is just as likely that the global economy had been gliding. For that matter, perhaps the OV’s experience would contribute less to H or even nothing. Any of these assumptions, if true, would serve to undermine the claim that H should do the same thing as OV.
例题二：Now is the time to invest in a PLG franchise so that you can profit from opening one of our gyms in your town. Consider the current trend: PLG is already popular among customers in 500 locations, and national surveys indicate increasing concern with weight loss and physical fitness. Furthermore, last year’s sales of books and magazines on personal health totaled more than $50 million and purchases of home exercise equipment almost doubled. Investing now in a PLG franchise will guarantee a quick profit.
题目结论：末句。
1.整体特征不一定适合于群体中的每个个体；同样，局部特征也不能表明整体特征。
关键判断词：your town，500 locations
改错模板：The argument assumes that the general trend that PLG is already popular among customers infers the trend in specific regions upon which the argument relies. Yet, the brochure fails to offer any evidence to substantiate this crucial assumption. Absent such evidence, it is just likely that PLG may not be so popular in the proposed town as it in the 500 locations; for that matter, perhaps in the mentioned region the people’s hobbies are just on the contrary, in which event the arguer’s recommendation would amount to especially poor advice.
2.急于概括：在证据不足的情况下作出普遍的概括
/因果关系简单化：忽略了因果关系的复杂性：一因到多果/多因合一果
/错误的两难处境：把复杂的问题简化为非此即彼的两种选择
改错模板：The recommendation depends on the assumption that no alternative means of influencing people’s concern on personal health are available. Yet no evidence is offered to substantiate this assumption. Admittedly, the last year’s sales of books, magazines and home exercise equipment are some evidence that could ensure a quick profit in some sense. However, it is entirely possible that other relevant factors might result in no profit at all. Perhaps a much quicker profit should result from investing in another program. Without considering and ruling out these and other alternative means of reducing profit, the arguer cannot confidently conclude that PLG franchise is a wise investment.
3.数据类问题(survey/study/poll)
(1) What procedure is used?
调查的结果是否具有代表性(representative)，是否遵循了随机性原则(the principal of random )：全体成员有同样的机会(the same opportunity)被抽到不能事先把一部分成员排除在外。
(2) How large was the sample?
抽样调查必须保证从调查对象的总体(the whole)中抽取足够大(adequate/sufficient)的样本，否则，调查的结果就缺少可信度(credibility)。
(3)Are the statistics misleadingly vague?
调查过程与结果的叙述应该使用明确的数字，如：具体的数字、比例或百分比。而不要模糊如：many, majority,以及不知道底数的百分比。
(4)Are the statistics complete?
作者只提供了部分相关数据
(5)Are the statistics important?
数据与作者试图证明的假设之间没有必然的联系
(6)When was the survey conducted?
调查的时间可能影响结果的代表性如：人们在选举前对政治新闻的兴趣可能变大，中国CCTV-5对NBA火箭队的兴趣等
关键判断词：National surveys
(样本不具备代表性)改错模板：(1) One problem with the argument involves the cited statistics about sales of books and magazines. It is unreasonable to draw any conclusions about their sales in the future based on statistics regarding last year’s. Depending on the total number of books and magazines, it is entirely possible that those on personal health are not representative of the whole. For example, perhaps the sales regarding sports totaled more than $50 billion. If so, then the arguer’s recommendation might amount to poor advice for us.
(收集数据过程有误)改错模板：(2)The survey methodology might be problematic in two aspects. First, we are not informed whether the survey required that respondents choose their concern between alternatives. If it did, then the results might distort the preferences of respondents, who might very well prefer a certain one not provided in the survey. Secondly, we are not informed whether survey responses were anonymous, or even confidential. If they were not, the respondents might have provided responses that they believed those in power would approve of, regardless of whether the responses were truthful. In either event, the survey results would be unreliable for the purpose of drawing any conclusions about people’s real increasing inclination.